AGP Executive Report

Philippines Quake Fallout: A 7.8-magnitude offshore earthquake hit southern Mindanao near General Santos, killing at least 35 and injuring 200+ as buildings collapsed and a landslide in Sarangani killed 13; tsunami warnings were issued across the region but later lifted after smaller waves were recorded. Indonesia Digital Child Safety: Indonesia’s Communication and Digital Affairs Minister Meutya Hafid urged parents to watch four online risks for children—strangers, harmful content, digital addiction, and health impacts—under the child-protection framework in Government Regulation No. 17/2025. US Trade Pressure on Forced Labor: The U.S. USTR proposed broad Section 301 tariffs of 10%–12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including Indonesia, tied to alleged failures to ban or enforce forced-labor import rules. ASEAN Ocean Cooperation: Norway launched its Norway–ASEAN blue economy collaboration in Jakarta, alongside an ASEAN workshop on sustainable aquaculture and fisheries capacity-building. Regional Security Signals: Japan continues defense outreach in Southeast Asia, including discussions tied to maritime cooperation with Indonesia and the wider push to deepen security ties.

Disaster Response: A 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck off Mindanao’s Sarangani coast, killing at least 19 people and injuring 134+ as buildings collapsed in General Santos; tsunami warnings were issued across the Philippines, Indonesia, Palau, Taiwan and Papua New Guinea, with waves reported up to about 1.4m before threats were later downgraded. Macroeconomic Pressure: Indonesia’s rupiah slide and “Sell Indonesia” market jitters intensified as Prabowo’s populist policies and governance shifts spooked investors; foreign reserves fell to $144.9bn in May, though Bank Indonesia said they remain adequate. Energy Governance: Indonesia will route some Russian crude imports through Lemigas under a 2026 presidential procurement regulation, aiming to simplify processes and enable government-to-government deals. Food & Agriculture Oversight: The Agriculture Ministry will investigate about 300 palm oil firms over alleged failure to raise fresh fruit bunch (FFB) prices, with inspections first and sanctions only after findings. Regional Tech & Infrastructure: Digital Realty announced a Malaysia expansion with a multi-site data centre campus in Cyberjaya, targeting 32MW capacity to support AI and high-performance computing demand.

EU Accountability on UNIFIL: The EU demanded “full accountability” after another UNIFIL soldier was killed in Lebanon, reiterating that attacks on civilians and peacekeepers violate international law. Indonesia–India Strategic Push: In New Delhi, Foreign Ministers S. Jaishankar and Sugiono co-chaired the 8th India-Indonesia Joint Commission Meeting, mapping deeper cooperation in defence, maritime security, trade, fintech, health, critical minerals, tourism and digital connectivity ahead of PM Modi’s Jakarta visit. Japan–Indonesia Defence Talks: Japan and Indonesia agreed to start working-level talks on transferring retired Asagiri-class destroyers, focusing on sustainment, crew training and integration. Free Meals Program Under Pressure: Indonesia’s National Nutrition Agency leadership reshuffle and a corruption probe tied to the MBG “free nutritious meals” scheme are being framed as a key test for Prabowo’s flagship. Rupiah & Trade Friction: Indonesia’s finance minister inspected container congestion at Tanjung Priok, as import delays and longer dwelling times raise pressure on supply chains. Regional Security & Maritime Trade: Coverage highlighted how the Strait of Hormuz is still seeing disrupted maritime traffic amid the Iran war’s 100-day mark. Creative Economy Angle: Indonesia’s gaming and esports sector is being positioned as a jobs-and-growth engine for the creative economy.

Education & Social Programs: President Prabowo urged students in Bali’s tuition-free Sekolah Rakyat to focus on discipline, integrity, and respectful conduct, while ordering faster expansion to tackle overcrowding and repurpose underused state assets. Food Security Delivery: Indonesia’s Public Works Ministry says it has finished 222 kitchen units (SPPGs) for the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program across 30 provinces, with handover to the National Nutrition Agency underway. Anti-Graft & Governance: The free-meals push continues amid corruption scrutiny, including raids and leadership shake-ups tied to the program. Disaster Recovery Budgeting: A disaster recovery task force urged ministries to speed up budget submissions and disbursement for long-term rehabilitation in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, targeting completion by 2028. Foreign Policy & Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Sugiono arrived in New Delhi to co-chair the 8th India-Indonesia Joint Commission Meeting with EAM Jaishankar, aiming to deepen the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Strategic Resources & Exports: Prabowo’s government issued PP 24/2026 requiring exports of strategic commodities like coal and palm oil to go through designated state-owned exporters. Regional Security Tech: Indonesia’s interest in advanced defense deterrence remains in focus as regional attention grows around BrahMos-related procurement discussions. Currency & Markets: Coverage continues on rupiah weakness and government/central bank efforts to stabilize markets as investor sentiment turns cautious. International Context: A week of reporting also tracked global reactions to the US-Israel war on Iran and its spillover into energy and economic uncertainty.

US Sanctions Hit Cuba Tourism: Indonesian hotel operator Archipelago International confirmed it is exiting Cuba, citing US sanctions and a Trump deadline tied to GAESA, following similar pullouts by other chains. Public Opinion on Israel: A Pew Research Center survey across 36 countries found negative views of Israel and Netanyahu have surged, with Indonesia among the highest anti-Israel sentiment levels. Nickel Market Policy Shift: Analysis says Indonesia is moving toward “value over volume,” using quotas and smelter rules to act more like an OPEC-style manager as a “green premium” reshapes demand. Digital Media Links: A new open-source review claims technical overlap between Viory and Ruptly via shared Yandex infrastructure and related traffic patterns. Indonesia Governance & Services: Jakarta pushes HR development for its “global city” bid; Papua’s Jayapura–Wamena road work continues; the Hajj ministry tracks returning pilgrims and reiterates flight-document rules. Trade Logistics: Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa urged tighter port storage rules at Tanjung Priok to cut congestion and dwelling time.

Rupiah Rescue Talks: Bank Indonesia and the Finance Ministry agreed to boost the attractiveness of Indonesian asset yields to pull back portfolio inflows after a sharp market selloff and the rupiah hitting record lows. Anti-Graft Push: KPK opened a graft probe into alleged bribery tied to BRI-Telkom banking notification services, with suspected state losses reported at nearly Rp2 trillion. Fiscal-Monetary Coordination: BI and the Finance Ministry said they will keep tightening coordination to stabilize the rupiah and support growth, including steps to manage liquidity and returns for foreign investors. Climate Justice Drive: The Environment Ministry launched the ASRI Movement and a “national ecological repentance” push to cut waste, as Indonesia’s waste crisis and landfill overload remain central policy targets. Waste-to-Energy Acceleration: Indonesia is speeding up waste-to-energy (PSEL) projects, with three sites set for groundbreaking soon and more in partner selection, targeting operations in 2028. Trade Pressure Watch: Indonesia expects its final US tariff rate under the Section 301 forced-labor probe to reach about 18% after talks and the US legal process. Digital Finance Security: OJK urged banks and fintechs to harden transaction security as AI-enabled fraud and ransomware threats rise. Defense Diplomacy: Japan and Indonesia agreed to start working-level talks on exporting Asagiri-class destroyers, including training, maintenance, and operational aspects.

Indonesia–China Policy: A senior DPR lawmaker said Indonesia remains committed to the one-China principle, pointing to a 2024 joint statement tied to President Prabowo’s China visit. US Trade Pressure: The US proposed forced-labor-related duties covering 60 countries, with Cambodia and several ASEAN states named, raising pressure on regional supply chains. Immigration & Corruption: Indonesia has ended fast-track processing for foreign limited and permanent stay permits, after reforms aimed at stopping extortion-style “special payments.” Finance Minister Rumors: Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa dismissed resignation rumors, stressing fiscal continuity and presenting budget figures to reassure markets. Human Rights Case: An acid-attack trial involving military-linked suspects continues, with lawyers describing the process as a “sham.” Public Health Regulation: Indonesia is drafting standardized, plain packaging rules for cigarettes and e-cigarettes to curb youth smoking, with a transition period for industry. Trade & Markets: Indonesia’s illegal fishing crackdown since 2021 is said to have prevented Rp16.6 trillion in losses, while palm oil prices react to Indonesia’s new centralized export control system. Defense Diplomacy: Japan and Indonesia are set to begin talks on exporting Japan’s Asagiri-class destroyer to Indonesia.

Rupiah Shock & Central Bank Overhaul: Indonesia’s rupiah broke past Rp18,000 per US$ for the first time as markets reacted to surging energy costs and investor worries after parliament passed a sweeping bill expanding Bank Indonesia’s mandate to include “real sector growth” and job creation, with lawmakers also gaining evaluation powers. Free Meals Under Pressure: The Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program is being pushed toward “efficiency” and tighter governance after corruption probes and the sacking of the program’s former head; BGN says new kitchen construction is paused while standards and targeting are tightened, with a renewed focus on pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers, and children under five. Volcano Disruptions: Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki erupted in Flores, sending ash high into the sky and forcing the closure of the nearby Maumere airport, disrupting several domestic flights. Nickel Policy Ripples: Chinese firms behind Indonesia’s nickel boom are scouting longer-term alternatives abroad as policy pressure and export-centralization plans reshape the investment model. Trade & Digital Rules: Indonesia finalized new e-commerce/PMSE rules to strengthen SMEs and consumer protection, including bringing ride-hailing and online travel agents under the framework. OECD Push: Switzerland pledged €3 million to support Indonesia’s OECD accession, while Indonesia aims to finish the technical review phase by 2030. Regional Tech Cooperation: Indonesia is set to contribute to ASEAN industrial AI application demands, including power dispatch and energy management priorities. Business & Tech Funding: JumpStart secured Series C funding to expand AI-powered, cashless smart vending machines across Indonesia.

Digital Identity & Fraud Prevention: Indonesia will require face biometrics for new mobile number registrations starting July 1, with data encrypted and stored only by Dukcapil, as the government expands SIM-related anti-fraud controls. Financial Oversight & Cybersecurity: OJK urged banks and fintechs to harden digital transaction security amid rising ransomware and AI-enabled fraud, citing a surge in risky cyber incidents and rapid growth in digital payments. Anti-Corruption & Social Assistance: Indonesia’s free meals program remains in the spotlight after leadership shake-ups and graft probes, with officials pushing for tighter governance and a refocus toward more remote areas. Regional Diplomacy: Indonesia’s MoFA held preparatory talks with Qatar ahead of the Qatar-Indonesia Strategic Dialogue, aiming to deepen cooperation across regional and international issues. Cross-Border Security Context: A Pew survey found unfavorable views of Israel and low confidence in Netanyahu across multiple countries including Indonesia, adding to the political backdrop for regional public opinion. Trade & Exchange-Rate Workarounds: Indonesia’s Trade Ministry discussed a barter scheme with the Philippines to ease currency pressure, with contract talks set for June 12.

Free Meals Crackdown: Indonesia’s anti-graft drive escalated as KPK detained Deputy Immigration Minister Silmy Karim over alleged extortion in immigration document processing, hours after the AGO arrested Dadan Hindayana, the former head of Prabowo’s free-meals programme, alongside two former deputies tied to corruption and food-poisoning fallout. Currency Shock: The rupiah slid to a record low near IDR18,000 per US dollar as foreign investors sold Indonesian bonds and shares, prompting renewed talk of market intervention. BRIN on AI Integrity: BRIN chief Arif Satria warned that AI must not be used to fabricate research, calling for tighter safeguards for scientific integrity. Tourism Push: DPR lawmakers urged tourism development to become a cross-sector national programme, not just a Ministry of Tourism task, as Indonesia seeks stronger visitor growth. Food Security Threat: UN and regional reporting point to El Niño returning, with hotter, drier conditions already disrupting crop planting across Asia, raising pressure on food supplies and prices. Regional Cooperation: Indonesia and Malaysia reaffirmed JCBC plans to deepen economic resilience and citizen-protection cooperation.

Military Justice Under Fire: UN experts condemned Indonesia’s use of military court proceedings in the acid attack case against human rights defender Andrie Yunus, urging a public civilian trial and warning of impunity risks in the “dual justice” system. US Tariff Pressure on Forced-Labor Goods: The Trump administration proposed Section 301 tariffs of 10–12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including Indonesia, after USTR said they failed to enforce bans on forced-labor-linked products—sparking pushback from trading partners and adding uncertainty for exporters. Rupiah Watch: Indonesia’s finance minister said the government will coordinate with the financial stability committee to support rupiah stability, while stressing Bank Indonesia remains the exchange-rate authority as the currency slid to around Rp17,966 per US dollar. Free Meals Program Crackdown: Indonesia’s nutrition agency leadership was shaken by raids and sacking tied to corruption allegations, with officials arrested over procurement and program-linked issues. Climate Risk Alert: The World Meteorological Organization warned of an 80% chance El Niño conditions between June–August, raising odds of drought, heavy rain, and heatwaves. Indonesia–Madagascar Ties: Foreign ministers agreed visa exemptions for diplomatic/official passport holders and discussed deeper cooperation on minerals, energy, finance, and creative industries. BRICS Disaster Resilience: BRICS DRR working group meetings in Puri focused on early warning systems and climate-smart infrastructure, with Indonesia among participants.

US Trade Pressure: The Trump administration proposed new Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies over alleged failures to curb imports made with forced labour, with Indonesia named among those facing a 10% duty—raising new uncertainty for trade talks and regional exporters. Domestic Legal Sovereignty: Indonesia’s DPR is pushing a Private International Law Bill to strengthen jurisdiction and choice-of-law rules, aiming to prevent foreign firms from locking Indonesian deals into home-country law. Free Meals Under Scrutiny: Investigators searched the National Nutrition Agency after President Prabowo sacked the head of the troubled free meals program, as officials cite governance and food-quality discipline issues. Military-Justice Clash: Prosecutors sought prison terms for soldiers over an acid attack on an activist critical of the military’s expanding role in government, spotlighting tensions between security institutions and civil society. Digital Governance: Indonesia’s under-16 social media ban is forcing rapid platform compliance, including account deactivations and child-tier app redesigns. Regional Diplomacy & Defence: Prabowo met Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan on Middle East stability and cooperation, while Indonesia and Qatar advanced defence industry ties through new agreements. BRICS DRR in Puri: A BRICS Disaster Risk Reduction working group meeting in Odisha, with Indonesia participating, focuses on resilient infrastructure, early warning, and disaster financing.

Pancasila Economy Push: President Prabowo framed his agenda for “economic transformation” around Pancasila at the Pancasila Day ceremony, tying welfare and justice to flagship programs like free nutritious school meals—while the policy still faces scrutiny over costs and execution. Free Meals Overseas: Indonesia’s National Nutrition Agency is weighing a pilot expansion of the free-meals program to Saudi Arabia (Jeddah), even as critics question food safety and procurement practices at home. Al-Aqsa Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Indonesia and seven other Muslim-majority countries issued a joint condemnation of Israeli settler incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque, calling them violations of international law and urging an immediate halt. Defense Cooperation: Qatar’s deputy PM and defence minister met Indonesia’s defence chief in Jakarta, with both sides discussing security coordination and signing defence-related agreements. Papua WWII Bomb Fallout: A WWII-era explosive ordnance blast in Papua’s Biak area killed five and left three missing, with authorities pausing rescue until bomb disposal clears the site. Gojek Graft Case: Ex-education minister Nadiem Makarim said prosecutors’ 27-year prison demand stems from a “blunder” and a forced link between Chromebook procurement and Google investment in Gojek. El Niño Warning: The WMO says El Niño is developing with high odds for June–August and beyond, raising the stakes for Indonesia’s disaster and climate preparedness. Online Age Limits: Indonesia’s new social media age restrictions are driving platforms to purge accounts and roll out youth-focused versions, intensifying the debate over enforceability and child protection.

Corruption Trial Watch: Indonesia’s former education minister and Gojek founder Nadiem Makarim pleaded not guilty in a corruption case over alleged Chromebook procurement losses, arguing the state suffered no losses and that the case is an “investigative mistake,” as prosecutors seek an 18-year sentence and huge restitution. Defence Diplomacy: Indonesia and Qatar moved to deepen defence cooperation, signing an MoU and discussing joint training, education, and defence-industry collaboration amid wider regional tensions. Online Child Safety: Malaysia began enforcing a ban on social media accounts for children under 16, requiring age verification and threatening platform fines—while Indonesia is also tightening rules on children’s exposure to harmful content online. Public Health Policy: Indonesia plans earlier liver-disease detection at puskesmas by training general practitioners, alongside hepatitis prevention and screening measures. Economy & Markets: Inflation in Indonesia quickened to 3.08% in May, with Bank Indonesia raising rates to keep prices within target as the rupiah weakens. Energy & Climate Risk: Scientists warn a “Super El Niño” is likely this summer, raising the odds of extreme heat and heavier climate swings—while Indonesia also pushes climate and food resilience planning. Maritime Readiness: The Indonesian navy conducted an amphibious landing drill in Palu to strengthen readiness and uphold maritime security in strategic corridors. Agriculture Politics: Oil palm farmers face renewed pressure after export-rule changes, while officials signal prices may stabilize as regulations settle.

Malaysia Under-16 Social Media Crackdown: Malaysia has started enforcing its nationwide ban on social media accounts for children under 16, requiring platforms with at least 8 million users to use government ID-based age verification; existing underage users get a one-month grace period to back up data, while non-compliance can bring fines up to 10 million ringgit (about $2.5 million). Indonesia Free Meals Oversight: Indonesia’s National Nutrition Agency (BGN) reminded Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) kitchen operators (SPPGs) that they must meet hygiene, wastewater, supplier, and workflow standards or face suspension—aimed at keeping the program running and protecting beneficiaries. Digital Public Infrastructure Push: Indonesia and Papua New Guinea have joined the 50-in-5 campaign to expand digital public infrastructure, linking digital identity, payments, and data exchange to improve government services. Riau Fire Preparedness: Riau Province declared forest-and-land-fire emergency alerts across 11 regions ahead of the dry season to tighten coordination and speed response. Papua WWII Bomb Fallout: A suspected WWII-era bomb exploded in Papua, killing five and injuring at least 20, prompting renewed security and disaster response attention.

Pancasila Economy Push: President Prabowo used Pancasila Day to argue Indonesia’s economic transformation must be rooted in Pancasila values—religiosity, humanity, unity, people-centered growth, and social justice—while warning he’ll face resistance from groups benefiting from corruption, smuggling, and illegal practices. Export Data Crackdown: Finance Minister Purbaya said the planned Danantara state export firm (DSI) will centralize export reporting via CEISA 4.0 to curb under-invoicing and keep export proceeds from leaking abroad, aiming to boost transparency and investor confidence. Social Media Age Rules (Malaysia): Malaysia began enforcing under-16 social media account bans with age verification for major platforms, citing child protection; Indonesia is referenced as already having similar rules. Food Security (El Niño): Indonesia is accelerating rice planting in Lamongan, East Java, expanding planted areas and ensuring irrigation, seeds, fertilizer, and machinery ahead of El Niño impacts. Security Incident (Papua): A suspected WWII shell exploded in Papua, killing five and injuring nearly 20, destroying homes and prompting an investigation. Regional Security Context: At Shangri-La Dialogue, Indo-Pacific defense leaders discussed faster rearmament and deeper partnerships amid uncertainty over US focus and China’s rising military power.