AGP Executive Report

Cabinet & Foreign Policy: President Prabowo reshuffled his cabinet, replacing Foreign Minister Sugiono with career diplomat Arrmanatha Nasir, who vowed continuity under Indonesia’s “free and active” principle. Wantimpres & Communications: Prabowo also inaugurated the Presidential Advisory Council (Wantimpres) and reshuffled the Government Communications Agency leadership. Industry Push: New Industry Minister Muhammad Sarmuji said he’ll tighten cross-ministry coordination to boost industrial growth and jobs, including with Investment/Downstreaming, Finance, Energy, and Agriculture. Aviation Safety: The Transportation Ministry is accelerating updates to aviation safety rules to align with ICAO amendments, with dozens of regulations to be revised. Banking Oversight: OJK set five priorities for the 2026–2030 banking roadmap, from integrity and digital resilience to sustainable finance and integrated licensing. Education & Human Capital: The government added 6,000 schools to the 2026 revitalization program, prioritizing 3T, disaster-hit, and severely damaged areas. Migrant Workers: KP2MI and Udayana University launched a migrant center to strengthen training, language readiness, and protection for overseas workers. Energy & Trade: Indonesia promoted US technology partnerships to reach a 1 million bpd crude oil target by 2030, while also highlighting B50 biodiesel’s role in stopping diesel imports. Environment & Disaster: Fires at multiple landfills and worsening dry-season conditions underscored waste and haze risks, while new islands emerged after Anak Krakatau’s eruption.

Police & Cabinet: Indonesia’s House approved Suyudi Ario Seto as the new police chief, while President Prabowo inaugurated Arrmanatha Nasir as foreign minister in a reshuffle that also reshuffled key portfolios. Legal Reform: A debate is heating up over the new Criminal Procedure Code’s corporate liability rules, with critics warning it could turn corporate officials into automatic targets even when fault is not clear. Climate & Public Health: “Climate apartheid” framing is gaining traction as officials push urban climate plans that may ignore how risk hits poorer communities hardest; meanwhile, El Niño-fueled wildfires and haze continue to choke parts of Indonesia and spill across the region. Environment & Disaster Risk: Villagers in Depok are struggling to sort waste because facilities like waste banks are missing, worsening flooding risks. Economy & Budget Outlook: The Finance Ministry says September indicators point to resilient fundamentals, supporting the 2027 budget’s growth, protection, and structural transformation goals. Foreign Policy & Trade: Indonesia is pushing to accelerate the Indonesia–GCC FTA, stressing investor certainty and security guarantees. Regional Security Cooperation: Indonesia calls for faster cross-border coordination to disrupt online scam networks, arguing “a network can only be beaten by a faster network.” Energy/Industry: Pertamina continues LPG distribution via Red and White cooperatives, linking energy access to local economic programs.

Cabinet Reshuffle: President Prabowo appoints Arrmanatha Nasir as Foreign Minister, replacing Sugiono, while also naming Bahlil Lahadalia to lead a new Coordinating Ministry for Downstreaming and Energy Transition and bringing in new Finance deputy ministers—moves that signal a tighter grip on economic and foreign-policy priorities. Police Leadership: Prabowo replaces Kapolri Listyo Sigit with BNN head Suyudi Ario Seto, alongside a broader police transformation agenda. Human Rights & Food Policy: Komnas HAM urges right-to-food principles to be embedded in national food governance, as Indonesia expands social protection and debates nutrition-related oversight. Environment & Haze: BNPB reports extinguishing 3,799.73 hectares of fires across six provinces, but regional haze continues to choke schools and spark legal frustration over limited recourse. Mining Protest Criminalization: Indigenous residents in Halmahera allege they’re being criminalized for opposing nickel mining permits, raising fresh concerns about due process and environmental enforcement. Digital & Trade: Indonesia pushes IP cooperation with South Korea and faces scrutiny over under-16 social media access, while Meta appoints Dhruv Vohra to lead Southeast Asia commercial strategy including Indonesia.

Pancasila Commemoration: President Prabowo led the Oct. 1 Pancasila Sanctity Day ceremony at Lubang Buaya and inaugurated a renovated Pancasila Sanctity Museum, spotlighting the 1965 events and the state’s official narrative. Prison Oversight: Indonesia’s Ombudsman probe into Cibinong prison found alleged VIP “villas” with TVs, air-conditioning, alcohol, and a swimming pool; five officials were suspended, renewing scrutiny of elite privilege behind bars. Free Meals Corruption Case: The Attorney General’s Office moved the nutritious meal program graft case toward trial after declaring suspect files complete, with former BGN officials facing up to 20 years. Human Rights & Papua: Indonesia pushed back at renewed UNGA scrutiny over Papua, rejecting claims as “disinformation,” while pointing to violence involving civilians and armed groups. Disinformation & Elections: A new report warns AI can “supercharge” election manipulation, using Malaysia as an example of AI-assisted fake news and coordinated online accounts. Disaster Response: Search efforts for the sunken Virgo Transport 8 ferry expanded with 1,000+ rescuers; 186 accounted for, with 57 missing. Environment & Wildlife: El Niño-driven wildfires are overwhelming orangutan habitats, with IUCN warning of mass impacts; Bali wildlife attractions also face welfare concerns. Energy & Industry: Indonesia targets nuclear site selection by 2026/27, while Telkom plans to streamline 19 more subsidiaries in Q4 and the government weighs textile revival incentives.

Budget & Welfare: President Prabowo told ministers to maximize the 2027 APBN for welfare, social protection, and infrastructure, while keeping the budget credible and efficient—alongside plans to work with sovereign wealth fund Danantara. Digital Social Assistance: Indonesia targets 48 million families to be registered in the Perlinsos digital system, using nearly 298,000 agents to reduce “exclusion error” for people not fluent with smartphones. Food & Nutrition Policy: The MBG free-meal program will add fish twice a week, aiming to boost protein intake and help prevent stunting. EV & Downstreaming: Indonesia pushes phase two of critical-mineral downstreaming, prioritizing EV battery and BESS supply chains, with large 2026 investment realization. Transport Regulation: DPR discusses a Traffic and Road Transportation Bill to regulate taxes and road-fund mechanisms for app-based transport, covering corporate tax and legal status for online vehicles. Governance & Prisons: Indonesia demolishes “luxury villas” inside Cibinong prison after findings of abuse of authority, following Ombudsman scrutiny of inmate living conditions. Environment & Disaster Risk: Indonesia’s haze and fire management remain politically sensitive regionally, while El Niño-linked climate risks are intensifying. Trade & Industry: Trade Expo Indonesia 2026 adds AI services for overseas buyers, and Indonesia frames US solar tariffs as an opportunity to grow domestic demand and local production. Regional Spotlight: Malaysia says it is still awaiting Indonesia’s response on haze assistance, even after earlier claims of green-lighting support.

Health Insurance & Budget Pressure: Indonesia will inject Rp 20 trillion into BPJS Kesehatan in stages in October–November to cover a 2026 cash-flow deficit, after premiums lagged claims (Rp 118T collected vs Rp 132T paid), though analysts warn it won’t fix the underlying structural shortfalls. Free School Meals Rollout: The National Nutrition Agency says President Prabowo’s free-meals program will open 480 kitchens next month, mostly in remote eastern provinces including Papua, after this year’s budget was cut to Rp 229T. Prison Oversight Scandal: Five prison officials near Jakarta were suspended after an Ombudsman surprise inspection found inmates allegedly living in luxury apartment-style units with amenities like TVs and a gym, raising questions about payments for VIP treatment. Election Rules & Political Competition: Jokowi signals PSI should be ready even if Indonesia’s parliamentary threshold rises for the 2029 election, as lawmakers debate election-law revisions. Disaster & Climate Risk: With El Niño delaying rains, BMKG warns many areas may start the rainy season later than usual, threatening crop cycles and food production. Public Health Update: WHO recommends the 2027 southern-hemisphere influenza vaccine composition as influenza activity rises globally, with Indonesia currently assessed as moderate. Women & Firefighting in Borneo: In West Kalimantan, volunteer women’s groups (“Power of Mama”) fight peatland fires despite sexist backlash, as haze continues to spread across the region.

Prison Overcrowding & Drug Rehab: President Prabowo ordered the Law Ministry to coordinate with BNN and BRIN on a rehabilitation policy for drug users inside Indonesia’s overcrowded prisons, where narcotics inmates make up about 54% of the population. Anti-Corruption Oversight: The Attorney General’s Office moved six suspects in the MBG (Free Nutritious Food) corruption case to prosecutors and named Colonel Budi Utomo a new suspect, with state losses cited at around Rp10 trillion. Health Insurance Cash-Flow Fix: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said the government will inject Rp20 trillion into BPJS Kesehatan to cover claims in October-November, on top of premium subsidies. Monetary Policy Watch: Bank Indonesia kept the benchmark rate at 5.75%, prioritizing growth while managing rupiah stability. Forest-Fire Response: Indonesia focused firefighting on South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan as hotspots fell nationally but rose sharply in South Sumatra, with peatland risks still flagged. Regional Security & Diplomacy: TNI confirmed the killing of an OPM figure in Intan Jaya, while Indonesia said it’s ready to partner with Cambodia to tackle online scams. Tourism Safety: The Tourism Ministry tightened volcano-tourism safety rules based on monitoring data, risk mapping, and visitor-cap controls. International Politics: Indonesia reiterated its stance on Palestine at the UN and continues preparations for a 2029–2030 UN Security Council bid.

Health Budget & BPJS: Indonesia will inject Rp 20 trillion (about $1.11b) into BPJS Kesehatan in October-November to cover its 2026 deficit, as revenues lag claims. Disaster Response: Basarnas continues the search for 64 missing Virgo Transport 8 ferry victims after 18 bodies were recovered, while Public Works deployed three pumps to irrigate 600 hectares of drought-hit Bekasi farmland. Environment & Public Health: Wildfires remain a political and health pressure point, with reports of rising respiratory illness amid haze. Immigration & Security: Indonesia is tightening verification for 12,204 foreign refugees, and police in Aceh seized 46.6 kg of meth, arresting a suspected courier. Trade & Diplomacy: Indonesia’s trade minister heads to the US for the G20 Trade Ministers’ meeting, and Indonesia is included among countries getting US tariff exemptions on certain specialty drugs. Regional Fisheries: Maluku projects 33 Indonesia-China TCG vessels to generate about 9,458 tons of fish annually. Social Forestry & Carbon Markets: The government is pushing community-led forestry carbon trading, highlighting Jambi’s Bujang Raba as a model.

Indonesia-Türkiye Diplomacy: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to stress deeper trade and defence-industry cooperation and invited him to COP31 in Antalya. Health Policy: Prabowo ordered hospitals to treat BPJS patients equally, alongside efforts to cut waiting times and improve care. Land Reform: Indonesia’s Agrarian Reform Regulation Law was approved, but civil groups warn key details are still unclear and could limit redistribution and challenge state-controlled land. Prison Corruption Probe: Indonesia is investigating alleged luxury facilities for inmates at Cibinong prison in West Java after Ombudsman findings and suspensions. Disaster Response: Search efforts continue after the Virgo Transport 8 ferry capsized, with the death toll rising to 66 and 69 still missing. Public Services: Indonesia began trials for a national air ambulance service to speed emergency evacuations in remote areas. Regional Security/Industry: Fincantieri and PT PAL signed an MoU to modernise the newly commissioned KRI Sriwijaya. Cross-border Payments: Swissport entered Indonesia via a JV with UNEX Aviation Services, expanding cargo and ground-handling reach.

UN Security Council Bid: Indonesia formally announced its candidacy for a non-permanent UNSC seat for 2029–2030, signaling a push to shape global governance ahead of the UNGA. Anti-Corruption Watch: The KPK alleges East Java land offices at BPN were funneling cash to individuals, after a raid seized hundreds of millions of rupiah in foreign and local currency. Constitutional Court Politics: The Gibran Rakabuming Raka education-qualification dispute continues at the Constitutional Court, with petitioners alleging KPU rule changes and irregular document handling. PSI-Jokowi Fallout: Jokowi’s official PSI membership card has sparked debate over whether it boosts PSI’s 2029 chances, with analysts warning the party still faces hurdles like the parliamentary threshold. Food Safety Crisis: Vice President Gibran visited Batang to oversee MBG suspected poisoning victims, stressing medical care, transparent investigation, and stronger supervision. Disaster Response: Basarnas extended the search for Virgo Transport 8 victims by seven days as the operation enters its 14th day. Agrarian Reform: Indonesia’s agrarian reform law moves forward amid calls to stop farmer criminalization and ensure real implementation, not just promises on paper. Maritime-Economic Ties: Indonesia–China Arafura Sea cooperation brings 669 workers to operate 33 Indonesian-flagged fishing vessels. Digital Payments Push: Indonesia expands cross-border QRIS connectivity to boost tourism and SME spending abroad.

UN Diplomacy & Palestine: Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono told the UNGA that Palestine remains a “test of conscience,” warning Gaza and the West Bank violations recall the pre-UN Charter world and reiterating support for an independent, sovereign Palestine under a two-state solution. Cybercrime Governance: Indonesia signed the UN Convention against Cybercrime at UNGA, making it the 91st signatory and positioning the treaty as a basis for stronger cross-border cooperation against scams, online gambling, and child exploitation. Papua Security & Governance: TNI Commander Gen. Agus Subiyanto said separatist groups in Papua must be defeated, pairing security operations with territorial development efforts, while also stressing multi-party collaboration to avoid violence. Prison Oversight: Indonesia’s immigration inspectorate is still investigating the head of Cibinong Correctional Facility after Ombudsman findings about alleged inmate “special privileges,” with suspensions already issued. Aviation Safety: The Transportation Ministry reinforced a three-layer aviation safety oversight system and contingency planning to keep air travel safe amid shifting operational risks. Digital Payments & Trade: Indonesia’s cross-border QRIS push continues, while the country also signed onto broader digital cooperation themes at major forums. Halal Policy Readiness: Industry and academia say Indonesia is prepared for mandatory halal certification starting Oct. 18, framing it as an ecosystem push beyond labeling. Environment & Enforcement: Jambi police destroyed equipment used in illegal gold mining, and Bali SAR continued searching for a missing Russian near Tanjung Mebulu. Education Staffing: The government plans to convert part-time PPPK teachers to full-time without tests by 2027 to address teacher shortages and career uncertainty.

UN Diplomacy: Indonesia’s foreign minister Sugiono told the UN General Assembly that Palestine “remains a test of our conscience,” urging respect for sovereignty and an end to colonialism, and framing Gaza and the West Bank as a direct challenge to the multilateral system. Regional Security & Holy Sites: Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar, in a Jerusalem-focused ministerial meeting with Indonesia and other partners, warned against attempts to change the legal status quo in East Jerusalem and called for coordinated international action. Infrastructure & Investment: Indonesia is exploring a massive 2,772km Trans-Kalimantan railway, with China and Russia showing interest, but analysts say deals may be cautious given past project financing strains. Rural Economy Policy: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said the government will repay bank loans funding President Prabowo’s “Red and White” village cooperative programme after verification of intended use. Environment & Humanitarian Impact: IUCN warned that Indonesia’s wildfires are pushing critically endangered Bornean orangutans toward the brink as fire and smoke hit key habitats across Borneo. Public Safety & Education: A child’s death linked to the MBG school meal programme has renewed scrutiny of food safety and supervision in schools. Disaster Response: Search teams recovered 11 more bodies after the Virgo Transport 8 sinking in the Java Sea, extending the ongoing rescue operation.

Mary Jane Veloso Homecoming: Philippines reports Mary Jane Veloso arrived at her family home in Nueva Ecija on Sept. 26 after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. granted her an absolute pardon, ending nearly 17 years of imprisonment and years of legal limbo tied to her Indonesia case. Digital Payments & Tourism: Bank Indonesia says inbound cross-border QR transactions hit $345.7m (Rp6.2tn) via QRIS Antarnegara, as it expands cross-border QRIS and launches an Indonesia Travel Pack to lift tourist spending and help MSMEs. Domestic Credit Card Push: BI also rolled out Kartu Kredit Indonesia through the national GPN network, aiming to deepen payment sovereignty and resilience. Creative Economy & Culture Policy: Indonesia’s Culture Ministry plans to revitalize Kudus’ Kretek and Patiayam museums with stronger narratives, while the creative economy workforce is pegged at 27.4m, with Gen Z and women leading. Environment & Public Safety: IUCN warns Borneo orangutans face rising fire pressure as habitats burn; Indonesia continues wildfire response amid regional haze. Governance & Accountability: Indonesia’s immigration ministry temporarily suspends Cibinong prison officials after Ombudsman findings on alleged luxury facilities for inmates. Foreign Policy on Jerusalem: Indonesia’s FM urges concrete action to protect Al-Aqsa and the legal status quo in East Jerusalem. Disaster Update: SAR teams recovered 11 more bodies after the Virgo Transport 8 sinking, bringing totals to 172 found, with 71 still missing.

Pardon & Diplomacy: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. granted absolute clemency to Mary Jane Veloso, ending her 16-year legal ordeal after her 2010 conviction in Indonesia; she walked free and reunited with family, while Philippine lawmakers urged a crackdown on illegal recruiters and traffickers. Forest Fires & Peatlands: Indonesia’s Prabowo ordered a new National Peatland and Mangrove Management Agency to improve mapping, early detection, and firefighting capacity, as El Niño-linked dry conditions keep haze and health impacts severe. Climate Finance: COP31’s Climate Implementation Bridge selected Indonesia as a pilot country to turn climate pledges into funded, investment-ready projects, with pilots also including Fiji, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Uzbekistan. Digital Governance: Indonesia signed the UN Convention against Cybercrime, signaling tighter cross-border cooperation on digital offenses. UNGA Flashpoint: Indonesia’s delegation walked out during Netanyahu’s UN speech, citing solidarity with Palestinians and condemning alleged crimes against humanity. Regional Haze Reality Check: Coverage highlights how Southeast Asia’s transboundary haze keeps recurring despite existing ASEAN frameworks, underscoring the gap between agreements and enforcement.

Constitutional Court & 2029 Politics: A new push for a “backdoor” presidential candidacy threshold is gaining traction after NasDem floated requiring DPR support from at least two factions, reviving debate over how Indonesia should set rules after the old seat/vote threshold was struck down. Anti-Corruption: KPK continues digging into an ATR/BPN bribery trail after an OTT tied to Summarecon’s HGB processing, with investigators moving across offices and tracing Rp106.3 billion in seized cash. Public Services & Education: The DPR and government agree part-time PPPK teachers will become full-time without further tests from January 2027, while Indonesia and JICA launch an MBG pilot to add Japan-style food and nutrition education to the free-meal program. Disaster & Safety: Indonesia is preparing to restore the fire-damaged National Museum with Danantara, and officials are still searching for victims after the KM Virgo Transport 8 sinking as new details emerge about ship modifications. Foreign Policy: Indonesia urges faster implementation of the two-state solution at the UN, and reaffirms ocean-climate action ahead of COP31. Regional Diplomacy: Malaysia and Indonesia set up a joint Halal Council to streamline halal certification and boost bilateral trade. Energy & Economy: The Fed’s rate hike is expected to pressure the rupiah and raise imported inflation risks for Indonesia.

UN Trust & Leadership: Foreign Minister Sugiono urged the next UN secretary-general to restore trust, strengthen the UN’s role amid rising conflicts, and better represent developing countries. Peatland Governance: President Prabowo ordered scientists and local communities to be involved in the planned National Peatland and Mangrove Management Agency to streamline permits and improve fire prevention. El Niño Health Preparedness: Indonesia’s health ministry is monitoring El Niño risks into 2027, warning of dehydration, wildfire haze impacts, and urging mask use and AQI checks. Forest Fire Response: Authorities reported hotspots shifting toward Central Kalimantan and West Kalimantan, with continued mitigation efforts and presidential attention to peatland management. Free Meals Program: Economists warned a planned centralized marketplace for the MBG free nutritious meal program could worsen governance centralization unless procurement and oversight are fixed; Indonesia is also studying Japan’s school lunch delivery models via JICA. Labor Bill Talks: Unions pressed for stronger protections for outsourced and gig workers, with severance and minimum wage rules still key sticking points. Halal Economy Push: The industry ministry highlighted Indonesia’s growing halal ecosystem and readiness to become a global halal hub, while officials said AI can speed halal certification but human inspection remains essential. Sports & National Mood: Indonesia’s Asian Games momentum continued alongside major regional football preparations, including security planning for the FIFA ASEAN Cup in Jakarta.