AGP Executive Report

Solar Power Push: President Prabowo inaugurated 14 solar projects totaling 5.3 GW, part of a 100 GW target by 2029, with major investment and diesel shutdown plans. Energy Policy & Subsidies: A new push for energy security pairs B50 biodiesel mandates with moves to reform fuel subsidies, raising questions about food-price impacts and how eligibility will be assessed. Forest Fires & Haze Response: Prabowo said fires are being contained in several areas and could be resolved in 1–2 weeks, as Indonesia ramps up aircraft, helicopters, wells, and personnel; Malaysia also offered cloud-seeding support using Indonesian airspace. Local Governance Under Pressure: Haze is driving school disruptions and respiratory illness spikes, with air quality in places like Riau hitting dangerous PM2.5 levels. Civil Liberties Clash: Mandiri froze a protest coordinator’s bank account, drawing flak from rights groups over potential restrictions on civic action. Digital Freedom Watch: Analysis warns Indonesia’s censorship and speech enforcement are tightening, including arrests tied to online commentary. International Diplomacy: Australia and Indonesia held a foreign and defence ministers meeting in Melbourne to operationalize the Jakarta Treaty and deepen security cooperation. Regional Humanitarian Alarm: UN experts renewed warnings that Rohingya face ongoing atrocity crimes, displacement, and worsening humanitarian conditions.

Solar Push: President Prabowo Subianto kicked off Indonesia’s 100 GWp solar power drive, launching 14 projects (5.3 GW) in Bali and setting a three-year deadline, with officials citing Rp73.9tn in annual electricity cost savings and plans to retire diesel plants. Energy Security: Prabowo also reiterated a hard target to stop importing oil and LPG within three years, tying it to renewables, geothermal, and boosting domestic oil lifting. Forest-Fire Crackdown: As haze spreads regionally, Prabowo ordered license withdrawals for firms linked to forest and land fires and said fires should be extinguished within one to two weeks, while authorities arrested suspects in multiple provinces. Regional Haze Fallout: Malaysia reported unhealthy Air Pollutant Index readings across dozens of areas, blaming transboundary haze moving from West Kalimantan. China Ties: China’s Wang Yi wrapped up a visit to Indonesia that included a new China-Indonesia comprehensive strategic dialogue mechanism and a 2+2 foreign-defense meeting, with both sides pushing deeper trade and AI cooperation. Defense Milestone: Indonesia’s first aircraft carrier base in Lampung is nearing completion, ahead of the ship’s September arrival and debut at the TNI anniversary.

Forest-Fire Crackdown: President Prabowo says Indonesia will revoke permits of companies behind land and forest fires after haze hit Malaysia, with authorities targeting around 30 firms and seeking major state-loss and restoration fines. Fire Response & Enforcement: The government has issued 35 permits for foreign firefighting aircraft and is stepping up aerial firefighting, peatland wetting, and legal action against alleged arsonists. Regional Diplomacy on Haze: Malaysia and Brunei are pushing for a diplomatic route as smoke worsens air quality across borders. Indonesia–China Strategic Push: President Prabowo met China’s Wang Yi and Defense Minister Dong Jun, praising deeper dialogue mechanisms and urging more Chinese investment while expanding cooperation on trade, AI, fishing, and maritime matters. Blue Economy Agenda: An ASEAN forum in Manila stresses an inclusive blue economy, arguing coastal communities must be involved in designing and benefiting from policy. International Shipping Safety: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar urges IMO intervention to secure release of Pakistani sailors held by Somali pirates aboard the MT Honour 25, alongside Indonesian crew. Tourism & Culture Flashpoints: Bali police hunt an Australian tourist filmed committing a lewd public sex act during Nyepi rules, while a separate Sade village blaze in NTB raises alarms about protecting indigenous sites as tourism grows.

Wildfire Crackdown: President Prabowo ordered wells, canal blocks, and retention basins in peatlands to stop fires before hotspots turn into blazes, while reiterating a strict ban on land burning and warning companies could face permit revocation. Enforcement Push: Indonesian police named 72 suspects in forest and peatland fire cases, as the government ramps up ground and aerial firefighting and deploys specialized paratroopers for remote Riau areas. Cross-Border Haze Diplomacy: Malaysia and Indonesia agreed to step up preventive and early suppression measures ahead of National Day and Malaysia Day, with cloud-seeding operations coordinated across airspace as El Niño intensifies. Disaster Response: After the Flores earthquake, BNPB said the death toll rose to 100 with over 180,000 displaced, while West Nusa Tenggara formed a task force to restore the Sade Traditional Village after a major fire. Infrastructure & Mobility: Jakarta confirmed 100% completion of the Kelapa Gading–Manggarai Jakarta LRT section, with trial runs underway and an inauguration planned subject to Prabowo’s schedule. Tech & Trade: Taiwan prosecutors indicted nine people, including Nvidia and Supermicro staff, over alleged illegal export of AI servers to China.

Forest-Fire Crackdown: Indonesia’s police named 72 suspects across nine regions in deliberate land-burning cases, saying satellite hot spots linked to oil-palm clearing were intentionally set during the dry season. Disaster Response in NTT: Police held trauma-relief sessions for quake-hit children in East Nusa Tenggara as the death toll rose to 91, with aftershocks still recorded. Logistics for Emergencies: The government dispatched six Air Force planes carrying food and firefighting gear to NTT and Kalimantan, including water pumps for peatland firefighting. Kalimantan Haze Measures: South Kalimantan officials urged residents to wear masks as smoke worsened, while authorities continued monitoring transboundary haze impacts. Policy/Politics Watch: The Palace denied a viral claim that a businessman was appointed coordinator for Kalimantan fire handling, saying minister-level officials lead cross-sector coordination. Energy & Trade Politics: A separate report highlights pressure to liberalise energy markets and fix industrial tariffs to keep hard-to-abate sectors competitive. Digital Cooperation: Indonesia and China agreed to set up a working group to deepen communications, digital technology, and AI collaboration.

Forest-Fire Response: Indonesia is escalating its Kalimantan wildfire crackdown with 1,000 more rangers, 1,500 additional troops and six helicopters, plus cloud-seeding and even foreign-registered aircraft fast-tracked for firefighting permits. Accountability & Enforcement: Police arrested 72 suspected fire starters, while the government investigates four firms tied to West Kalimantan fires and says minister-level officials are coordinating by region. Health Impact: Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin warns about 3 million people exposed to wildfire smoke, urging masks and air-quality monitoring as haze spreads. Disaster Relief (NTT): The Women’s Empowerment ministry will set up a Women and Children Friend Post (Pos SAPA) in East Nusa Tenggara to plug service gaps after the Aug. 15 quake, alongside ongoing aid deliveries. Migration & Borders: Indonesia’s KJRI Johor Bahru repatriated 307 Indonesians from Malaysia, including immigration detainees, as authorities warn syndicates use legal entry, back routes, and social-media scams. Foreign Policy & Diplomacy: Indonesia and China held new defense and foreign dialogue mechanisms in Jakarta, signaling deeper strategic cooperation. Regional Politics/Trade: Indonesia sees a “China plus one” investment opening amid US-China trade tensions, aiming to attract manufacturing and data-center projects.

Forest Fires & Enforcement: President Prabowo ordered more troops, helicopters, and firefighting gear to Kalimantan as karhutla worsens, while authorities investigate four firms over West Kalimantan fires and deploy thousands of personnel to contain hotspots. Wildlife Protection: Indonesia arrested six suspects tied to illegal logging inside Riau’s Kerumutan Wildlife Reserve, a critical Sumatran tiger habitat, after aerial patrols spotted a logging camp. Strategic Resources Policy: Indonesia plans to run a Strategic Mineral and Commodities Exchange from Jan. 1, 2027, aiming to set an “Indonesia Reference Price” and regain pricing control over key exports. Trade & Tariffs: Canada’s PM Mark Carney said U.S. trade talks collapsed over auto tariffs and limits on Canada’s independent trade deals. Regional Diplomacy: Indonesia joined a broad group of Arab and Islamic countries condemning Israel’s strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur military airbase. Economy & Commodities: Indonesia expects palm oil export levy collections to rise about 31% in 2026 as the levy rate increases. International Security: A China-Indonesia naval “passing exercise” near Taiwan drew criticism from Taiwan, while Indonesian officials said it was routine naval diplomacy.

Forest-Fire Crackdown in Kalimantan: President Prabowo Subianto ordered more troops, helicopters, and firefighting gear as Borneo’s haze worsened, while Indonesia investigates four West Kalimantan companies over suspected fire-linked land clearing and warns of permit revocations. ASEAN Haze Pressure: Malaysia urged ASEAN to boost early action and information-sharing as smoke from Indonesian fires pushed air quality into unhealthy levels in Sarawak. Military Surge for Firefighting: Indonesia is sending an additional 1,500 soldiers and deploying six helicopters, plus cloud-seeding support, to curb hotspots across West and Central Kalimantan. Disaster Response in NTT: The Indonesian Red Cross shipped 33,947 relief items to quake-hit East Nusa Tenggara, as BNPB airlifted nearly 778 tons of emergency aid and reported the Flores quake death toll rising to 87. Indonesia–China Strategic Push: Prabowo met Chinese FM Wang Yi and Defense Minister Dong Jun, signaling deeper cooperation across politics, economy, science/tech, and defense, including a new working group on communications and digital affairs. Regional Diplomacy on Syria: Indonesia joined a group of foreign ministers condemning Israeli strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur military airport as an extreme escalation. Youth and Jobs via Creative Economy: Indonesia’s creative economy ministry says the sector can absorb Gen Z and millennials, positioning it as a jobs lever amid high unemployment.

Indonesia–China diplomacy: Jakarta and Beijing held a new China-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue in Jakarta, pledging deeper cooperation on trade, defense, minerals, energy, tech and South China Sea Code of Conduct talks. Middle East solidarity: Indonesia joined a broad group of Muslim-majority countries condemning Israel’s “E1” settlement plan and settlement expansion, warning it threatens Palestinian contiguity and a two-state solution. Syria strikes: Foreign ministers including Indonesia also condemned Israeli airstrikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur military airport as a dangerous escalation violating Syrian sovereignty. NTT earthquake response: Indonesia said it is accelerating recovery after the East Nusa Tenggara quake as aftershocks continue, with the death toll reported rising to 83. Kalimantan fires: Wildfires and land clearing by burning are still spreading across Borneo, while weather modification and local firefighting capacity are struggling to keep up. Gold market push: Indonesia is moving to integrate gold into the financial system via a bullion market association and “gold bank” ecosystem, aiming to deepen markets but raising concerns about capital diversion. Trade policy: Indonesia and the EU are progressing toward IEU-CEPA, with Indonesia seeking its highest tariff commitments and wider market access for key exports.

Indonesia–China Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indonesia’s Sugiono held strategic and 2+2 talks in Jakarta, pledging closer defense cooperation and tighter coordination on food, energy and minerals, while both sides pushed back against “unilateralism” and power politics. Wildfire Governance: Indonesia escalated forest-fire response in Kalimantan, with the TNI mobilizing 14,167 personnel and the government expanding cloud seeding and weather modification, as El Niño forecasts warn of harsher extremes. Free Meal Program Overhaul: Luhut urged the National Nutrition Agency to overhaul the MBG “Free Nutritious Meal” program—tightening data use, hygiene standards, and refocusing kitchens toward 3T frontier regions. NTT Earthquake Recovery: BNPB reported 1,378 Flores schools damaged, with emergency education arrangements for 177,678 students as assessments continue. Legal & Social Order: A Swiss tourist in Bali was sentenced to one year for insulting Nyepi, while Indonesia’s BNN announced a major meth seizure of 2.6 tons that could have affected 14.1 million people. Digital Payments: Bank Indonesia said QRIS has reached 65.77 million users and 44.86 million merchants, with MSMEs making up 96.68% of acceptance points.

Indonesia–Netherlands Diplomacy: A Dutch honorary consulate opened in Makassar, with plans to boost ties in economy, culture, education, and even a gradual “visa-at-your-doorstep” service for Sulawesi residents. NTT Earthquake Response: BNPB says the East Nusa Tenggara death toll has climbed to 75, as aftershocks and damaged infrastructure keep aid and recovery moving slowly. Trade & Security With China: Indonesia’s foreign and defence ministers will meet China’s Wang Yi in a “2+2” format focused on security, politics, and economic issues—amid regional tensions and scrutiny over past joint drills. US–Iran Pressure Spillover: Indonesia is pulled into wider regional diplomacy as China rejects Trump’s “Economic D-Day” campaign against Iran, warning sanctions and pressure won’t solve the conflict. Markets & Governance: The Indonesia Stock Exchange plans to scrap the 50 rupiah minimum share price to improve liquidity and better reflect valuations. Wildfires & Climate Pressure: Fires in Indonesian Borneo are worsening, with international calls for firefighting support as smoke spreads toward Malaysia.

NTT Earthquake Response: Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka urged a rapid, integrated focus on basic needs for East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) quake survivors, while the government ramps up field logistics—food convoys, clean-water tankers and hydrants, and plans for air ambulances and mobile field hospitals for remote areas. Women in Politics: The Ministry of Women’s Empowerment and Child Protection formed a National Women’s Political Working Group to push stronger women’s representation ahead of the 2029 election-law revision, citing gaps in how the 30% quota is implemented in KPU and Bawaslu. Energy Transition: Jakarta targets 10,047 electric buses by 2030 and net-zero by 2050, and the national government is set to start tenders for 30 GW of solar as part of a 100 GW expansion push. Industrial Policy: Indonesia set four criteria for its national electric motorcycle program (Molinas), including >60% domestic components and nickel-based batteries, aiming to cut fuel subsidy burdens and build local supply chains. Governance & Security: Indonesia’s KPK plans to question foreign nationals in an immigration residence-permit extortion probe, as the government also moves to tighten entry-point security measures in international airports. Markets & Economy: The IDX plans to cut the minimum tradable share price to Rp1 and adjust auto-rejection bands to improve liquidity.

Disaster Response & Fiscal Moves: Indonesia has disbursed Rp44 billion (about US$2.5m) for earthquake relief and is preparing further funding based on on-the-ground damage assessments in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), as BMKG warns Flores aftershocks could continue for 21–30 days. Public Order & Protests: Jakarta police plan to restrict protests at the Hotel Indonesia traffic circle, triggering backlash from students and activists who call it an unlawful curb on freedom of expression. Constitutional Politics: Constitutional experts oppose reviving New Order-era state policy guidelines (PPHN), warning it could restore excessive MPR-era political authority; the debate is now tied to how the framework could be adopted legally. Energy & Infrastructure: The government is securing state land and reservoirs for a major 30-GW solar push, while also advancing NTT recovery logistics including a hospital ship carrying 70 tons of aid. Strategic Commodities Governance: Indonesia’s planned Strategic Minerals and Commodities Exchange (BMKS) faces scrutiny over liquidity, governance, and standards as it aims to set Indonesia reference prices starting Jan. 1. Defense & Industry: Plans to develop Kertajati as an Air Force fighter-jet MRO hub underscore the push for maintenance self-reliance. Political Narrative: Analysis highlights Prabowo’s “unscripted” communication style and how rhetorical detours can force repeated diplomatic and domestic damage control.

Major Drug Bust: Indonesia seized about 2.6 tons of liquid methamphetamine from a ship intercepted off Sumatra and detained 10 Myanmar crew members, in one of the country’s biggest cases this year. Defense Modernization: Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin hinted Indonesia may receive more fighter jets, while highlighting progress toward local maintenance capability after the C-130H handover. Geothermal Push: ESDM Minister Bahlil Lahadalia urged geothermal concession holders to start work immediately, as Indonesia targets Rp2.6 trillion in geothermal non-tax revenue in 2026 and ramps up licensing and tenders. Disaster Response (NTT): BNPB is preparing housing repair and temporary shelter support for Flores earthquake victims, with Rp15m/30m for lightly/moderately damaged homes and Rp600,000 housing waiting funds for severe damage. Digital Payments: Bank Indonesia said QRIS transactions jumped 82.4% year-on-year in July, driven by more users and merchants. Energy Planning: Indonesia mapped 9,000 hectares of state land and reservoirs for solar sites under its 100-GW program, aiming to cut diesel use in remote areas. Religious Tolerance & Diplomacy: Indonesia’s Religious Affairs Minister urged wider global promotion of Jakarta’s Silaturahim tolerance tunnel after a German delegation visit.

China-Indonesia diplomacy: Chinese FM Wang Yi will visit the ROK and Indonesia (Aug 19-22), chairing the first China-Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue and joining a joint foreign-defense ministerial meeting in Jakarta. Disaster response & governance: Indonesia is mobilizing full inter-ministerial resources to speed recovery after the Flores/NTT 7.7 quake, prioritizing food and shelter, reopening blocked roads/bridges, and restoring power and communications, as aftershocks continue and tourist sites face safety closures. Public order & civil liberties: Hundreds of students protested in Jakarta after Independence Day, while a separate controversy flared over a presidential defense regulation that labels “spread of LGBTQ culture” a non-military security threat. Environment & cross-border fallout: Wildfires in West Kalimantan are worsening haze into Malaysia, with Sarawak schools closed as air pollution hits “very unhealthy” levels. Anti-corruption focus: A new commentary argues the “revolving door” problem must be stopped from within institutions, not just at the top. Financial oversight: ESDM says it will trace illegal gold export smuggling from upstream miners to downstream distribution, including identifying financiers. Regional labor ties: Indonesia seeks more skilled-worker opportunities in Kuwait, including healthcare and oil-gas/manufacturing roles.

NTT Earthquake Response: Indonesia is racing to support nearly 31,000 East Nusa Tenggara evacuees after the 7.7 quake, with the Social Affairs Ministry funding relief (over Rp14 billion), distributing rice and staples, and running seven emergency public kitchens as aftershocks disrupt recovery. Disaster Logistics & Local Measures: Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian said priorities include restoring electricity networks and getting basic food to residents, while Bali’s BPBD has sent initial supplies and medical support to Flores. Public Safety & Tourism: Authorities temporarily closed several Flores tourist sites for inspections and repairs, while Komodo-area attractions remain open. Governance & Integrity: The Agriculture Ministry dismissed 14 officials over alleged financial irregularities worth billions of rupiah, with investigations ongoing. Human Rights Policy: Human Rights Minister Natalius Pigai framed MBG free meals and free health checks as basic rights, stressing fixes to implementation so remote communities benefit. Economic Signals: Bank Indonesia reported Indonesia’s external debt rose 4.4% y/y to US$453.4b in Q2, driven by higher public external debt amid investor confidence. Industry Watch: The textile minister said Indonesia’s textile and garment sector still has room to grow despite pressures, citing millions of jobs and export performance.